The resources and products from FLARE include papers, data, educational modules, and software:
Technical papers
Carey C.C, W.M. Woelmer, M.E. Lofton, R.J. Figueiredo, B.J. Bookout, R.S. Corrigan, V. Daneshmand, A.G. Hounshell, D.W. Howard, A.S. Lewis, R.P. McClure, H.L. Wander, N.K. Ward, and R.Q. Thomas. 2022. Advancing lake and reservoir water quality management with near-term, iterative ecological forecasting. Inland Waters 12: 107-120 https://doi.org/10.1080/20442041.2020.1816421
Daneshmand, V., A. Breef-Pilz, C.C. Carey, Y. Jin, Y.-J. Kun, K.C., R.Q. Thomas, R.J. Figueiredo. 2021. “Edge-to-cloud Virtualized Cyberinfrastructure for Near Real-time Water Quality Forecasting in Lakes and Reservoirs” in 2021 IEEE 17th International Conference on eScience (eScience), Innsbruck, Austria, 2021 pp. 138-148. https://doi.org/10.1109/eScience51609.2021.00024
Holthuijzen, M.F., R.B. Gramacy, C.C. Carey, D.M. Higdon, and R.Q. Thomas. Synthesizing data products, mathematical models, and observational measurements for lake temperature forecasting. arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2407.03312
Lofton, M.E., D.W. Howard, R.Q. Thomas, C. C Carey. 2023. Progress and opportunities in advancing near-term forecasting of freshwater quality. Global Change Biology 29: 1691-1714 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16590
McClure, R.P, R.Q. Thomas, M.E. Lofton, W.M. Woelmer and C.C. Carey. 2021. Iterative forecasting improves near-term predictions of methane ebullition rates. Frontiers in Environmental Science 9:756603 https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2021.756603
Moore, T. N. and J.P. Mesman, R. Ladwig, and J. Feldbauer, F. Olsson, R. M. Pilla, T. Shatwell, J. =J.Venkiteswaran, A.D. Delany, H. Dugan, K.C. Rose, J. S.Read. 2021. LakeEnsemblR: An R package that facilitates ensemble modelling of lakes. Environmental Modelling & Software 143: 105101. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105101
Olsson, F., C.C. Carey, C. Boettiger, G. Harrison, R. Ladwig, M.F. Lapeyrolerie, A.S.L. Lewis, M.E. Lofton, F. Motealegre-Mora, J.S. Rebaey, C.J. Robbins. X. Yang, and R.Q. Thomas. What can we learn from 100,000 freshwater forecasts? A synthesis from the NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge. ESS Open Archive https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.171458144.44104603/v1
Olsson, F, T.N. Moore, C.C. Carey, A. Breef-Pilz, and R.Q. Thomas. 2024. A multi-model ensemble of baseline and process-based models improves the predictive skill of near-term lake forecasts. Water Resources Research 60: e2023WR035901 https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR035901
Paíz, R., R.Q. Thomas, C. C. Carey, E. de Eyto, A. Delany, R. Poole, P. Nixon, M. Dillane, I.D. Jones, D.C. Pierson, V. McCarthy, S. Linnane, E. Jennings. Near-term lake water temperature forecasts can be used to anticipate the ecological dynamics of freshwater species. SSRN. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4888712.
Thomas, R.Q, R.P. McClure, T.N. Moore, W.M. Woelmer, C. Boettiger, R.J. Figueiredo, R.T. Hensley, C.C. Carey. Near-term forecasts of NEON lakes reveal gradients of environmental predictability across the U.S. Frontiers in Ecology and Environment 21: 220–226 https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.2623
Thomas R.Q, R.J. Figueiredo, V. Daneshmand, B.J. Bookout, L.K. Puckett, and C.C. Carey. 2020. A near‐term iterative forecasting system successfully predicts reservoir hydrodynamics and partitions uncertainty in real time. Water Resources Research 56: e2019WR026138. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026138
Wander, H.L., R.Q Thomas, T.N. Moore, M.E. Lofton, A. Breef-Pilz, C.C. Carey. 2024. Data assimilation experiments inform monitoring needs for near-term ecological forecasts in a eutrophic reservoir. Ecosphere 15: e4752. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4752
Woelmer, W., R.Q. Thomas, M. Lofton, R. McClure P, and C.C Carey. 2022. Near-term phytoplankton forecasts reveal the effects of model time step and forecast horizon on predictability. Ecological Applications 32: e2642 https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2642
Woelmer, W.M., R.Q. Thomas, F. Olsson, B.G. Steele, K.C. Weathers, and C.C. Carey. 2024. Process-Based Forecasts of Lake Water Temperature and Dissolved Oxygen Outperform Null Models, with Variability Over Time and Depth. Ecological Informatics 83: 102825. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2024.102825
Wynne, J. H., W. M. Woelmer, T. N. Moore, R.Q. Thomas, K C. Weathers, C. C. Carey. 2023. Uncertainty in projections of future lake thermal dynamics is differentially driven by global climate models and lake models. PeerJ 11:e15445 https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.15445
Data packages
Carey, C.C., J.H. Wynne, H.L. Wander, R.P. McClure, K.J. Farrell, A. Breef-Pilz, J.P. Doubek, A.B. Gerling, K.D. Hamre, A.G. Hounshell, A.S. Lewis, M.E. Lofton, and W.M. Woelmer. Secchi depth data and discrete depth profiles of photosynthetically active radiation, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and pH for Beaverdam Reservoir, Carvins Cove Reservoir, Falling Creek Reservoir, Gatewood Reservoir, and Spring Hollow Reservoir in southwestern Virginia, USA 2013-2020 ver 8. Environmental Data Initiative. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/3e9f27971e353c8a80840b5e99a67d0c
Carey, C.C., A. Breef-Pilz, B.J. Bookout, M.E. Lofton, and R.P. McClure. Time series of high-frequency meteorological data at Falling Creek Reservoir, Virginia, USA 2015-2020 ver 5. Environmental Data Initiative. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/890e4c11f4348b3ceda802732ffa48b4
Carey, C.C., A. Breef-Pilz, and B.J. Bookout. Time series of high-frequency sensor data measuring water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pressure, conductivity, specific conductance, total dissolved solids, chlorophyll a, phycocyanin, and fluorescent dissolved organic matter at discrete depths in Beaverdam Reservoir, Virginia, USA 2020 ver 1. Environmental Data Initiative. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/9a4877016583357cf04b8f68eb53b648
Carey, C.C., A.G. Hounshell, M.E. Lofton, F. Birgand, B.J. Bookout, R.S. Corrigan, A.B. Gerling, R.P. McClure, and W.M. Woelmer. Discharge time series for the primary inflow tributary entering Falling Creek Reservoir, Vinton, Virginia, USA 2013-2021 ver 7. Environmental Data Initiative. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/8d22a432aac5560b0f45aa1b21ae4746
Carey, C.C., A.S. Lewis, R.P. McClure, A.B. Gerling, S. Chen, A. Das, J.P. Doubek, D.W. Howard, M.E. Lofton, K.D. Hamre, and H.L. Wander. Time series of high-frequency profiles of depth, temperature, dissolved oxygen, conductivity, specific conductivity, chlorophyll a, turbidity, pH, oxidation-reduction potential, photosynthetic active radiation, and descent rate for Beaverdam Reservoir, Carvins Cove Reservoir, Falling Creek Reservoir, Gatewood Reservoir, and Spring Hollow Reservoir in Southwestern Virginia, USA 2013-2020 ver 11. Environmental Data Initiative. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/5448f9d415fd09e0090a46b9d4020ccc
Carey, C.C., H.L. Wander, W.M. Woelmer, M.E. Lofton, A. Breef-Pilz, J.P. Doubek, A.B. Gerling, A.G. Hounshell, R.P. McClure, and B.R. Niederlehner. 2021. Water chemistry time series for Beaverdam Reservoir, Carvins Cove Reservoir, Falling Creek Reservoir, Gatewood Reservoir, and Spring Hollow Reservoir in southwestern Virginia, USA 2013-2020 ver 9. Environmental Data Initiative. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/6343e979a970e8a2590b4a450e851dd2
Carey, C.C., M.E. Lofton, W.M. Woelmer, K.D. Hamre, A. Breef-Pilz, J.P. Doubek, and R.P. McClure. 2021. Time-series of high-frequency profiles of fluorescence-based phytoplankton spectral groups in Beaverdam Reservoir, Carvins Cove Reservoir, Falling Creek Reservoir, Gatewood Reservoir, and Spring Hollow Reservoir in southwestern Virginia, USA 2014-2020 ver 5. Environmental Data Initiative. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/54d4bd2fee1e52e36e2b0f230912d2da
Carey, C.C., W.M. Woelmer, A.S. Lewis, A. Breef-Pilz, D.W. Howard, and B.J. Bookout. 2021. Time series of high-frequency sensor data measuring water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pressure, conductivity, specific conductance, total dissolved solids, chlorophyll a, phycocyanin, and fluorescent dissolved organic matter at discrete depths in Falling Creek Reservoir, Virginia, USA in 2018-2020 ver 5. Environmental Data Initiative. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/88896f4a7208c9b7bddcf498258edf78
Hounshell, A.G., R.H. Thai, K.A. Peeler, D.T. Scott, and C.C. Carey. 2021. Time series of optical measurements (absorbance, fluorescence) for Beaverdam and Falling Creek Reservoir in Southwestern Virginia, USA 2019-2020 ver 1. Environmental Data Initiative. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/d1062b14ed1df86507414afe8d45dc75
Schreiber, M.E., K.M. Krueger, Z.W. Munger, N.W. Hammond, M.E. Lofton, R.P. McClure, and C.C. Carey. 2021. Time series of total and soluble iron and manganese concentrations from Falling Creek Reservoir and Beaverdam Reservoir in southwestern Virginia, USA from 2014 through 2020 ver 5. Environmental Data Initiative. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/16aef1a227f489ba26274f36fde6b824
Educational modules
Lofton, M.E., T.N. Moore, W.M. Woelmer, R.Q. Thomas, and C.C. Carey. 2024. A modular curriculum to teach undergraduates ecological forecasting improves student and instructor confidence in their data science skills. Bioscience: Awaiting issue. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biae089