The dashboard and all contents thereof and all services are provided on an “as is” basis without any warranty or condition, express, implied or statutory. User acknowledges any forecast is an experimental research product and there are uncertainties inherent in attempting to make projections, forecasts, and plans. User takes full responsibility for making its own evaluation of the adequacy and accuracy of all projections, forecasts, and plans
Welcome to the the Ormstrup Sø (Lake Ormstrup) water temperature forecast dashboard. Forecasts are generated by the Virginia Tech Center for Ecosystem Forecasting in collaboration with Aarhus University Institute of Ecoscience.
THIS FORECAST IS ONLY A PROOF OF CONCEPT AND SHOULD NOT BE USED FOR DECISION MAKING OR ANY ASSESSMENT OF FORECAST QUALITY
Forecast issued
Sep 16, 2026 02:00 CEST
Forecast horizon
14 days
Surface temp now (0.5 m)
17.2 °C
Range: 13.4–20.1 °CProbability lake is mixed
92%
Each line in the forecast represents an alternative prediction (ensemble member) where the set of predictions (ensemble) form the forecast uncertainty. The colors represent predictions that used two different weather models as inputs. Hover over the lines for more information. Clicking a line shows a selected ensemble member at both depths. Double click on white space in the plot to return back to the default plot view.
The probability of mixing is calculated by comparing the density at the top and bottom of the lake for each ensemble member and determining the percentage of ensemble members with a density difference of less than 0.1 kg/m3.
Forecasts are generated using the Forecasting Lakes and Reservoir Ecosystem (FLARE) system. FLARE combines data assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter), the General Lake Model (GLM), and numerical weather forecasts to generate ensemble water quality forecasts. It provides depth resolved outputs that include uncertainty from weather forecasts (via ensemble weather forecasts), GLM parameters, and GLM numerical representation of the ecosystem. The forecasts are automatically generated every day at 13:00 UTC using GitHub Actions.
The forecasts presented here are driven by two different numerical weather forecast models. The NCEF GEFS (National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecasting System) is a 31-ensemble member forecast at the 0.25° resolution. The ECMWF IFS (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System) is a 51-ensemble member forecast at the the 0.25° resolution. Both weather forecast products are accessed through https://open-meteo.com.
Learn more about other forecasting applications by the Center here.
Learn more about the ongoing research at the Center here.